WHY, HOW AND WHEN TO BOMB IRAN?

July 14, 2008

Iran is working assiduously to develop atomic weaponry. However long it may take that country to accomplish its goal, the consensus among political and military entities in the Western world, including Israel, seems to be to prevent that from ever becoming a reality. Why?

The value systems of Iran and the rest of the Muslim world seem to be that human life has little to no value in comparison with the concept of martyrdom by death through terror and warfare against the West. The drive, supported by enormous oil wealth, to gain parity in military capability with the non-Muslim world by developing the awesome destructive power of atom bombs with potential martyrdom for millions of their own people and simple death for those who believe that the four-score plus years that infidels find attractive , seems to have been moving without let-up for several years. The melding of religion, patriotism, hubris, and enormous amounts of money, has placed Iran on its own mental pedestal at a height it deems equivalent to the height of more civilized nations that do not possess oil for sale. This is a parody turned serious. A play that has moved from the make-believe world of political theater to the real world of warfare. The machismo nature of the threats and blustering have alerted the pillars of Western Civilization to imminent danger from this uncontrollable rapidly growing monster. Iran wants to convince other nations of its power. It has succeeded.

Bunker-busters and other heavy bombing tactics may not destroy Iran's atomic facilities. For sure they will accomplish a slowing down of the processes and will expose the serious intent of the Western nations to inhibit what they consider irresponsible renegade behavior by Iran. In all likelihood, Israel will conduct the actual attacks after providing peremptory life-saving warnings to the Iranian workers in the areas of manufacture. Fueling and re-fueling of the aircraft will be performed as close to the targets as international cooperation can achieve. Anti-missile battalions will stand at the ready to intercept any retaliatory attempts by Iran to inflict harm on Israel. Also, Arab governments will receive warnings and admonitions from Israel's friends that an attack on Israel will be considered an attack on those powers, with dire consequences for the attacker.

The timing of the attacks, if they take place, appears obvious. They will occur after the United States elections and before the change in government that will take place in January. Such timing will protect the lame-duck government of George W. Bush and the incoming government under the newly-elected president from "pre-connivance" with the Israeli plans.

Tracking the growth of this very real menace has led cooperating nations to prepare plans for delaying, if not destroying, the nuclear capability of Iran. The warnings have been clear, even to laymen. Israel's earlier bombing of the Iraq's Ossiric atom plant, recent bombing of atomic material in Syria, the military exercises conducted in the Mediterranean by Israel's sea and air forces, the movements of American warships in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, the recent agreement to set up a cruise-missile shield in Czechoslovakia, and the political machinations of the Group of Five and the powers in the United Nations in demanding Iran's acquiescence to forgo the use of their centrifuges to create weapons-grade uranium or plutonium, are all indications of the seriousness of the intent so necessary to the use of military force.

Iran will be prepared for such attacks miltarily and politically. To what extent that preparation will be valuable depends on realistic and meaningful assessments of the intentions of the attacking nations, their military investments, and whether Israel can be isolated from its supporting group of nations.

The Iranian military responses, from all the available information, will not be meaningful in this action's context. For anyone not familiar with Israel's military prowess or for those who believe the recent Lebanese fiasco was indicative of Israel's capabilities, limiting the appreciation of Israel's armed might would be an error. After the air attacks, Israel will be in an alert defensive posture. Despite the potential heavy loss of civilian lives from rocket and missile attacks from neighboring Arab states, that posture will give the Israeli army a large measure of superiority over attacking armies.

The most intelligent avenue that Iran can pursue both before and after an attack by Israel, is to allow United Nations inspectors in to their atomic facilities to assure the world that Iran will not become a military atomic power. However, Iran has not exhibited rational evaluation of their national interests in the past - note the history of the Iran Iraq war - and, until some weighty counter balance of secular, humanistic, and economic powers to oppose the ascendent religious patriotic forces presently in control of Iranian thinking enters their calculations, it does not appear likely that a rational outcome from even highly successful military action can be expected.